Conservative MP Suggests Ukraine NATO Membership Could Be Barred in Potential Deal

Download IPFS

Conservative Member of Parliament for North Cotswolds, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, has suggested that a possible outcome from a future meeting between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and potentially Volodymyr Zelenskyy could involve Ukraine being denied entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

Speaking in the context of ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Sir Geoffrey said he believed such a concession might form part of a wider agreement aimed at de-escalating the conflict. The idea reflects a longstanding dispute over NATO’s expansion and its impact on relations with Russia.

Since the 1990s, NATO’s eastward growth has been a point of friction. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, there were informal assurances to Russia that the alliance would not move “one inch” eastward. However, over the years, several countries bordering or near Russia have joined NATO, a development Moscow has consistently opposed. This expansion has been cited by Russia as one of the contributing factors to its increasingly aggressive posture in Eastern Europe.

Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO have been a central issue since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatist movements in eastern Ukraine. The war that began in 2022 intensified the debate over whether Ukraine should be admitted to the alliance. NATO membership would grant Ukraine the security guarantees outlined in Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which considers an attack on one member as an attack on all. Russia has stated it views such a move as a direct threat to its national security.

The potential for an Alaska summit, involving Trump, Putin, and possibly Zelenskyy, would represent a high-level diplomatic effort to address the conflict. While no official agenda has been set, speculation about the terms of a possible agreement underscores the geopolitical significance of Ukraine’s alignment.

Sir Geoffrey’s comments point to a scenario where Ukraine’s membership ambitions are set aside in exchange for concessions from Russia, potentially including a ceasefire or troop withdrawals. Such a deal would be contentious, as it could be seen as compromising Ukraine’s sovereignty in order to achieve peace.

As the conflict continues, the question of NATO enlargement remains one of the most sensitive aspects of the negotiations. Whether Ukraine will eventually join the alliance or be excluded as part of a settlement will likely depend on both the willingness of Western powers to stand by Kyiv’s ambitions and the outcome of any direct talks between its allies and Russia.