Britain Braces for Subtropical Heat as Summer Sunshine Returns

Download IPFS

After a washout start to the school holidays, the UK is set to bask in a subtropical heat surge, with forecasters predicting temperatures as high as 29°C by the end of the week, making parts of Britain warmer than the Algarve. The arrival of this 400-mile-wide warm front is expected to deliver a much-needed boost for families on summer break and businesses reliant on seasonal tourism.

Following days of heavy rain and thundery downpours, particularly across Wales, southwest England, and Scotland, conditions are forecast to improve significantly from Thursday onwards. Southern and central parts of England are likely to enjoy dry weather heading into the weekend, with peak temperatures forecast at 29°C in the Midlands and South, comfortably outpacing the 28°C expected in Faro, capital of Portugal’s Algarve region. Meanwhile, northern areas may see highs of around 24°C, accompanied by a mix of sunshine and showers.

The Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, noted a shifting pattern as low-pressure systems weaken, paving the way for drier and warmer conditions. A Met Office spokesperson said: “Low pressure will linger with unsettled conditions, but showers ease by Wednesday with drier conditions extending to most parts on Thursday. The weekend has prolonged dry and sunny spells in the South, with wet weather focused on the North.”

Longer-term forecasts suggest that this is not a one-off. In August, forecasters anticipate further hot spells, with temperatures of 30°C and above. The Weather Outlook’s Brian Gaze stated: “After a shaky start, school holidays will see temperatures rise later this week. Several hot spells are due during the summer break, with highs pushing over 30C. There will be unsettled conditions ahead as well, but also sunny periods for many to enjoy.”

For families choosing to holiday in the UK, this return to sunshine is welcome news. With many opting for staycations amid rising travel costs and logistical uncertainties abroad, the timing of the warm weather offers a reprieve for the leisure, hospitality, and tourism sectors, industries that rely heavily on predictable and appealing summer conditions.

However, forecasters are urging caution, particularly early in this week. The Met Office has issued amber and yellow weather warnings for heavy rain and thunderstorms, especially across Northern Ireland, southwest England, and Scotland, with some alerts remaining active into Monday evening. Affected areas could see localised flooding and transport disruption, though these risks are expected to subside midweek.

Looking further ahead, forecasters see signs of high-pressure systems from the southwest expanding their influence across the UK. This could bring extended periods of dry, settled weather as summer continues, offering some much-needed consistency in the national forecast.

While unpredictable weather has long been a British summer staple, this year’s subtropical spells may offer a more familiar rhythm: a soggy start, followed by sunshine and soaring temperatures. For now, sun-seekers and small businesses alike will be hoping the forecast holds and that the sunshine lasts long enough to make the most of the season.