Global Tensions Push John Swinney Toward Defence Policy Rethink

In a notable shift that reflects the changing face of global security, First Minister John Swinney has opened the door to revising the SNP’s traditionally firm stance on defence spending. Amid growing international threats and pressure to modernise Scotland’s industrial support role, Swinney has acknowledged the need to reconsider how public funds are used in the defence sector, marking what could become a significant turning point in Scottish Government policy.

Historically, the SNP has held a principled position against investing public money in arms manufacturing. That stance has been tied closely to the party’s opposition to nuclear weapons, particularly the UK’s Trident nuclear deterrent based on the Clyde. However, Swinney’s recent comments suggest a more pragmatic tone is emerging. While he has reiterated his opposition to funding munitions or weapons systems directly, he has indicated a willingness to support defence-related infrastructure, skills development, and supply chain projects, provided they do not involve producing armaments.

This policy softening comes in response to both international and domestic pressures. Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, increased tensions in the Indo-Pacific, and the broader uncertainty of the global order have forced governments across Europe to reevaluate defence capabilities. For Scotland, this means looking closely at the economic and strategic implications of its long-standing ethical policies. The recent case involving a specialist welding facility designed to support Royal Navy submarines brought the issue into sharp focus. Funding for the site was withheld by Scottish Enterprise due to existing restrictions, drawing criticism from industry leaders and prompting intervention from the UK Government.

Swinney acknowledged the dilemma, stating that while Scotland must remain committed to peaceful principles, the evolving threat landscape demands a more balanced approach. He made clear that supporting skilled jobs and advanced engineering in the defence sector does not have to contradict Scotland’s values. Rather, he argued, it’s about ensuring that the country is not left behind economically or strategically as global tensions rise.

The shift is already stirring debate within the SNP and its Green coalition partners, many of whom remain deeply sceptical of any move that could be seen as endorsing militarism. Still, Swinney’s remarks reflect a leader grappling with the real-world demands of governance. As European allies ramp up defence spending and modernise their capabilities, Scotland faces a choice: remain rigid in principle, or adapt its policy framework to ensure long-term security, economic resilience, and strategic relevance.

John Swinney’s evolving stance may not represent a full U-turn, but it signals an important recalibration, one shaped not by ideology alone, but by a changing world that is demanding new levels of flexibility and foresight.