Keir Starmer’s Chagos deal faces turmoil as Trump’s potential involvement looms

LONDON — A diplomatic effort spearheaded by UK Labour leader Keir Starmer to resolve the contentious Chagos Islands dispute has been thrown into disarray, following speculation that former US President Donald Trump may seek to intervene. The unexpected twist adds an international dimension to a decades-old conflict over the Indian Ocean archipelago.

The deal, which aims to restore sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, has been hailed as a significant step towards addressing colonial injustices. However, sources within diplomatic circles suggest that Trump, eyeing a return to the political stage, could disrupt the fragile negotiations by advocating for continued US control over Diego Garcia, the largest island in the Chagos archipelago and a critical US military base.

The Chagos Controversy

At the heart of the issue is the UK’s decision in the 1960s to detach the Chagos Islands from Mauritius, then a British colony, to establish the British Indian Ocean Territory. The subsequent removal of the Chagossian population to make way for a US military installation on Diego Garcia has sparked decades of legal battles and international criticism.

In 2019, the International Court of Justice ruled that the UK’s continued administration of the islands was unlawful, a position later backed by the United Nations General Assembly. While successive UK governments have resisted calls to return the islands, Starmer has indicated his willingness to resolve the matter through a negotiated settlement, in line with international law.

Trump’s Potential Influence

Reports of Trump’s possible intervention surfaced as the United States, which has a long-term lease on Diego Garcia, monitors the negotiations closely. Analysts warn that Trump, who remains influential within the Republican Party, may use the issue to assert a hard-line stance on national security and strengthen his campaign narrative ahead of the 2024 US presidential election.

“Diego Garcia is a strategic asset for the US, especially in the context of growing tensions with China,” said Dr Susan Markham, a geopolitical analyst. “Trump could argue that relinquishing even indirect control over the island would undermine US defence interests in the Indo-Pacific.”

Such a move could put Starmer in a difficult position, as balancing the UK’s legal obligations with its alliance with the US will likely define the outcome of his efforts. Observers note that Trump’s potential involvement could also create divisions within the Labour Party, where opinions on Britain’s post-colonial responsibilities vary widely.

Mauritius Pushes Back

Mauritius, for its part, has expressed frustration at the prospect of external interference. Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth has reiterated his government’s determination to regain full sovereignty over the Chagos Islands and ensure the resettlement of displaced Chagossians.

“This is a matter of decolonisation and justice,” Jugnauth stated in a press conference earlier this week. “We hope all parties involved will respect the rule of law and the principles of fairness.”

A Crossroads for UK Diplomacy

For Starmer, the Chagos deal represents not only an opportunity to resolve a painful chapter in British history but also a test of his leadership on the global stage. His ability to navigate the delicate relationship with the US, especially under the looming spectre of a Trump comeback, will likely have long-term implications for UK foreign policy.

While Downing Street has yet to comment on the latest developments, insiders suggest that Starmer is pressing ahead with the negotiations, aware of the risks posed by any delay.

As the saga unfolds, the Chagos Islands remain a symbol of both historical injustices and the intricate geopolitics of the 21st century. Whether Starmer can deliver a resolution remains uncertain, but his efforts have already thrust the archipelago back into the global spotlight.