Polish Election: Right-Wing Populists Surge

The first round of Poland’s 2025 presidential election has set the stage for a fiercely contested runoff on June 1. Centrist candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and supported by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, narrowly led with 31.36% of the vote. Close behind him was Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian backed by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, who secured 29.54%. The tight race highlights a deepening divide in Poland’s political landscape, with both candidates vying for the presidency in an election that will shape the country’s future direction.

Nawrocki’s strong showing in the first round is largely attributed to the solid support he received from far-right voters, who together accounted for over 20% of the vote. His platform, which emphasizes Polish nationalism, economic freedom, and skepticism toward the European Union’s Green Deal, has resonated with many voters seeking a more conservative and independent approach for Poland. His campaign advocates for a reassessment of Poland’s relationship with the EU, promising a shift toward more nationalistic policies that appeal to those dissatisfied with EU governance.

Meanwhile, Trzaskowski faces the challenge of consolidating support from voters who backed candidates eliminated in the first round. His platform focuses on strengthening Poland’s ties with the EU, judicial reforms, and social inclusivity. The outcome of this election could have significant implications for Poland’s future political trajectory, influencing both domestic policies and its role within the European Union, making the upcoming runoff a pivotal moment in Polish politics.